Montreal reached the Eastern Conference Final last season, and somehow the Canadiens might still be losing ground in their own division.
Training camp is just weeks away, and the Atlantic Division has shifted substantially since last season ended. Some teams got stronger, some got weaker, and a few essentially stood still.
Standing still is the real danger here. Montreal has plenty of promising young talent that should keep developing, but every other team in this division has its own group of young players who could take a similar step forward.
Buffalo lost Alex Tuch and Bowen Byram after winning the division outright, adding Olen Zellweger and Louis Crevier in return, a real net downgrade.
Tampa Bay traded away Taylor Raddysh, Nick Paul, and Oliver Bjorkstrand, adding Adam Carlson and Ilya Mikheyev instead, essentially treading water after a 106 point season.
Ottawa lost Brady Tkachuk and added Victor Eklund and Andrei Burakovsky, a real step back for a team that made the playoffs.
Detroit shed Patrick Kane, James van Riemsdyk, and Cam Talbot, replacing them with Viktor Arvidsson, Parker Kolesar, and Daniil Tarasov, another team that looks weaker on paper.
Why standing still could actually mean losing ground
Boston quietly improved, adding JJ Peterka, William Borgen, and Connor Clifton after losing only Viktor Arvidsson, one of the more underrated moves of the summer.
Florida and Toronto stand out as the two biggest movers, and it's not a coincidence that both finished near the bottom of this division last season.
Florida added Brady Tkachuk, Jacob Markstrom, and Radko Gudas after losing Sergei Bobrovsky, Evan Rodrigues, and Mackie Samoskevich. A healthy Aleksander Barkov returning to that lineup only strengthens the case for a real bounce back.
Toronto made the most dramatic overhaul of anyone, shedding Joseph Woll, Dennis Hildeby, Matias Maccelli, and Brandon Carlo while adding Sergei Bobrovsky, Darren Raddysh, Gavin McKenna, Jack Roslovic, and Nick Paul.
Toronto finished dead last in the Atlantic with 78 points last season. Games against the Leafs should be considerably more competitive this year regardless of where they ultimately land in the standings.
That leaves Montreal in a genuinely interesting spot. The Canadiens finished third with 106 points and made a real playoff run, and there's every reason to expect internal growth from Ivan Demidov, Juraj Slafkovsky, and a healthier Alex Newhook.
But internal improvement isn't the same as actually upgrading the roster, and Montreal still hasn't addressed its real needs. There's no legitimate second-line center, no proven top-six winger to pair with Demidov, and no right-shot, top-four defenseman added. Size and grit remain in short supply too.
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That's why Montreal gets a slight downward mark here, even without believing this is actually a worse team. The problem is that most other clubs have their own internal growth coming too, which shrinks whatever edge Montreal thought it had.
Finishing third again with 100 points instead of 106 would technically hold position in the standings, but it would still represent real ground lost. Standings tell you where you finished. Points tell you how hard it actually was to get there.
A reasonable projection for this coming season has Florida and Tampa Bay atop the division, with Montreal, Toronto, and Boston bunched tightly behind them, and Buffalo, Ottawa, and Detroit rounding out the bottom.
None of the teams that regressed fell off a cliff, and Buffalo still won the division last year despite its losses. But Florida and Toronto have genuinely closed the gap, and that alone should make every divisional game tighter and every point harder to earn this season.
The race between Montreal, Toronto, and Boston specifically could end up being one of the tightest storylines in the entire league this year, with all three having real cases for finishing ahead of the others.
Will the Canadiens actually lose ground in the Atlantic Division this season despite internal growth?
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