Connor McDavid's next contract is going to define this decade for the Edmonton Oilers. But the real cap crisis brewing might not be him at all.
McDavid posted 138 points in 82 games last season, and Stan Bowman has already made clear Connor will set his own price whenever he decides to sign.
If McDavid wants to reset the market and land north of $20,500,000 annually, that's one number. Add Leon Draisaitl's $14,000,000, and Edmonton is already at $34,500,000 for two players.
Draisaitl posted 97 points in just 65 games last season, production that makes that number easy to justify on paper.
Throw in Evan Bouchard's $10,500,000, and three players alone approach $45,000,000 combined against a cap that's only projected to hit $115 to $120 million next year.
Bouchard posted 95 points in 82 games last season, a genuine Norris-caliber campaign that only strengthens his case for a much bigger payday down the road.
That leaves roughly $70 to $80 million to fill out an entire 20-man roster once those three deals are locked in at market value.
The real threat is what depth players cost next
McDavid's current $12,500,000 cap hit is one of the great value contracts in league history, and Draisaitl's deal has aged the same way.
But that value has masked a much bigger problem building underneath it. Depth players around the league are getting paid numbers that didn't exist a few years ago.
Zach Hyman posted 52 points in just 58 games last season on a $5,500,000 cap hit, a number that looks increasingly team-friendly given what similar wingers are now commanding elsewhere.
Mattias Ekholm carries a $6,250,000 hit at 36 years old, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has quietly outperformed his own contract for years.
The real question is what replaces those three deals once they expire.
If a Hyman-type winger costs $8 or $9 million instead of $5.5 million, and an Ekholm-type defenseman jumps from $6 to $9 or $10 million, Edmonton's cap sheet gets crushed fast.
Even goaltending isn't safe from this shift. Starters have historically cost $5 to $7 million, but if that number climbs to $9 or $10 million, four core pieces alone could eat up half the cap.
Paying McDavid, Draisaitl, and Bouchard what they're worth was never really the risk here. It's everyone else on the roster that Edmonton needs to figure out how to afford.
Will rising contract costs for depth players eventually hurt the Oilers more than their stars' salaries?
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