Auston Matthews takes home ice against Ottawa tonight still chasing his first point, and the Maple Leafs have a schedule built for a fix.
Toronto opened with a back-to-back at home, dropping a 3-2 decision to Montreal before edging the Islanders 2-1 the next night.
That's a 1-1-0 start with four goals for and four against, which is neither alarming nor convincing.
The bigger story is the calendar. Seven of Toronto's first 10 games are at home, and 16 of the first 25 land in front of their own crowd. That's a real advantage starting the season.
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Ottawa tonight and Nashville on Tuesday keep them home a little longer. Then comes a three-game trip through Las Vegas, Colorado and Utah.
The Senators haven't played a regular-season game yet. They walk in with fresh legs and nothing on tape, which cuts both ways for a Toronto group still finding its rhythm.
Matthews went through both opening games without a point and a minus-2 rating. For a player carrying a $13,250,000 cap hit, that's two nights the building didn't get what it paid for.
Easton Cowan is carrying the load Toronto's stars haven't
Easton Cowan has filled the gap. He owns three points, a power play goal and Toronto's only game-winner so far, all on a $900,000 cap hit.
William Nylander has scored twice, so the top six isn't completely silent. The rest of the forward group has managed two goals combined.
The blue line has been a sore spot. Darren Raddysh, at $8,500,000, sits at minus-3 and hasn't registered a point.
Anthony Stolarz has kept things afloat with a .963 save percentage. Sergei Bobrovsky sits at .875 and wears the loss.
So does a friendly October actually matter?
A home-heavy start is like opening a road race on a downhill stretch. It helps, but nobody wins the thing by coasting.
Leaning on the building to fix Toronto's offence is a bad plan. Noise doesn't win a puck battle along the wall, and it won't finish a two-on-one.
Gavin McKenna, 18, is still waiting on his first NHL point. Last change at home gives Jim Hiller room to shelter him with friendlier matchups.
The Atlantic isn't waiting around. The Bruins are already 2-0-0, and the Leafs sit fourth in the division.
The real test lands later in the month. Toronto plays four straight on the road in Edmonton, Calgary, Seattle and Vancouver from Oct. 24 to Oct. 31.
Then the schedule swings back with six straight at home in November. Montreal visits on Nov. 7, a shot to answer for that opening-night loss.
Bank enough points before that western trip and the calendar looks like a gift. Still no Matthews production by Halloween, though? The crowd everyone keeps asking to get louder might find its voice for the wrong reason.
Is Toronto's home-heavy start wasted if Auston Matthews doesn't produce before the western road trip?
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